Why the UK government must take a different approach to restoring devolution in Northern Ireland

Alan Whysall discusses the prospects for the return of the Northern Ireland political institutions this autumn. He finds limited grounds for optimism and concludes that the responsibility for salvaging the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement settlement may now fall to the next British government. This post picks up themes from the author’s two most recent papers for the Constitution Unit, called Northern Ireland’s Political Future (NIPF) and The Agreement at 25.

As the July issue of Monitor recorded, visits from US President Joe Biden and other notables to celebrate the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement had little apparent effect on Northern Ireland politics; nor did local government elections, at which Sinn Féin emerged triumphant. The principal Agreement institutions remained in abeyance, vetoed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which remains concerned about the Northern Ireland Protocol and Windsor Framework. At the time of writing, tensions are growing over policing, potentially deepening the political standoff. Northern Ireland meanwhile is being governed without government by civil servants who have very limited authority, together with occasional interventions from London.

Will devolution come back?

Before the summer, many commentators believed that the DUP would reach a deal in the autumn, claiming credit for aspects of the Windsor Framework, to bring back the institutions. This remains possible – many DUP careers depend on their existence. There have been suggestions of progress behind the scenes in the last few days. But it is now harder to be confident. Stasis until the UK general election seems possible, while the political, social and economic fabric of Northern Ireland deteriorates. Why?

First, the DUP may find compromise over the Protocol difficult. Negotiations are apparently going on between the party and the government, informed by a private 18-page DUP wish list. Its public demands for action on the Protocol, and on the threats it sees in it to Northern Ireland’s constitutional position, have been vaguely expressed, but the implication is that they are substantial. It seems unlikely that London can do very much to satisfy them without reopening the Protocol or the Agreement itself: and it has warned that it cannot do significantly more. So DUP supporters may be disappointed in any feasible compromise, and according to polling, they largely endorse the hard line taken so far. Senior party figures may be obdurate too, whatever the leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, wants: the former deputy leader, Lord (Nigel) Dodds of Duncairn, spoke vehemently of the ‘many unresolved and outstanding problems’ created by the Framework, suggesting London was merely peddling spin.

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Rebuilding and renewing the constitution: the courts and the rule of law

A new Constitution Unit report by Meg Russell, Hannah White and Lisa James, published jointly with the Institute for Government, provides a menu of constitutional reform options ahead of political parties’ manifesto preparation. Its chapters appear on this blog throughout August, with this fourth excerpt identifying potential changes relating to the courts and the rule of law.

Recent years have seen growing scrutiny of the relationship between government, parliament and the courts, and the government’s attitude to the rule of law. Politicians have increasingly tended to push back against courts – which are said to have become too powerful in our constitutional arrangements, leading to a ‘democratic deficit’. Resistance to the European Court of Justice and the European Court of Human Rights seems to have evolved into a more general willingness to breach, or risk breaching, international law. Added to this have been disagreements over the appropriate bounds of legal scrutiny, with the government’s increasing use of ouster clauses – which exempt certain decisions from judicial review – attracting particular attention. And legal funding and administrative challenges continue to fuel expert concerns about access to justice. In this climate, the role of the government’s law officers, such as the Attorney General, in upholding the rule of law has come under increasing attention. These tensions have boiled over at times into very public attacks by ministers on judges and lawyers.

This is an area in which there could be significant ‘quick wins’ through communicating a change of attitude. Beyond this, various proposals for change have come from external expert bodies and parliamentary committees for improvements to the system. Such reforms – some of them quite minor – could help to settle the relationship between the political branches and the courts. This would help uphold the UK’s reputation as a bastion of the rule of law – with all the international political and economic advantages that confers. There are also proposals for wider-reaching policy change.

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