The new voting system for mayors and PCCs: how it changed the results

This month’s elections for mayors and police and crime commissioners were contested under a revised voting system. In the first of a two-part blogpost, Alan Renwick examines how the shift affected the results. He finds that the impact was substantial, and that it specifically benefited the Conservatives. 

The elections held earlier this month for mayors and police and crime commissioners (PCCs) took place under a revised voting system. The Elections Act 2022 abolished the previous Supplementary Vote (SV) system, under which voters could express first and second preferences, in favour of straightforward First Past the Post (FPTP). The changed rules were applied in four local mayoral elections last year. But this year’s local elections offered the new system its first large-scale outing: every part of England and Wales had either mayoral or PCC elections; a few had both. 

So how did the new system fare? Did it affect the results? If so, whom did it benefit? This post endeavours to answer these questions, while a second part, which will be published tomorrow, will examine how the change affected the democratic quality of the elections in the round. 

How the change affected the results 

Ten combined authority mayoral elections and 37 PCC elections took place on 2 May. Under the new FPTP rules, Labour won nine of the mayoral contests, while the Conservatives won one. In the PCC contests, the Conservatives won 19, Labour 17, and Plaid Cymru one.  

We cannot be sure what the results would have been had the former SV system still been in place, but we can make estimates grounded in evidence. To do so, it is easiest to break the contests down into three groups. 

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The UK Governance Project: proposals for reform

A commission chaired by former Attorney General Dominic Grieve recently published a report on the current state of UK governance, which has identified substantial problems and made recommendations to improve matters. Here, Dominic outlines the report’s key conclusions and recommendations, ahead of an online Constitution Unit event at which he and fellow commissioner Helen MacNamara will discuss the report in greater detail and answer audience questions.

Introduction

The origin of this project was a shared concern amongst the Commissioners who came together to produce it, that the institutions which underpin our parliamentary democracy are losing credibility. This is certainly the view of the public. A 2023 Constitution Unit survey has shown that only 38% of respondents were ‘very satisfied’ or ‘fairly satisfied’ with the way UK democracy operates. In contrast 52% were dissatisfied. The same percentage agreed with the statement that ‘politicians tend to follow lower ethical standards than ordinary citizens’. Yet the same politicians are the lawmakers and governors who expect others to respect the rules they create. 

It should therefore come as little surprise that 78% of respondents also considered that ‘healthy democracy requires that politicians always act within the rules’. Yet in recent years there is plenty of evidence that this has not been happening. Government ministers have been found to be ignoring the ministerial code of conduct under which they are supposed to operate. When they have, nothing has been done about it. We have had a Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, who was found by the Commons Privileges Committee to have deliberately misled parliament. The principle that appointees for life to the House of Lords as legislators in a revising chamber should be of conspicuous integrity, has been shown to be capable of being flouted at Prime Ministerial will. The Electoral Commission, which was created to ensure that elections should be free from improper interference by the government or other interests, has had its powers and independence reduced.  It has become more obvious than ever, particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic, that the powerful degree of control that a government exercises over parliament is not conducive to the enactment of properly scrutinised primary laws and secondary legislation.

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Unchecked power? How recent constitutional reforms are threatening UK democracy

The constitution has consistently felt under strain in recent years, following a succession of crises. Alison Young argues that a written constitution is not necessarily the solution to this problem, concluding that it is important to ensure that key constitutional guardrails are not just defended against abolition, but protected from gradual degradation as well.

Ever since the outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016, it seems like the UK constitution has lurched from crisis to crisis. Even after negotiating Brexit, the UK had to deal with a global pandemic – something, it would appear from hearings of the Covid-19 inquiry, for which the UK was not fully prepared.

With commentators naturally immersed in these key issues, there has been less attention paid to other, quieter, aspects of constitutional reform. The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2020, for example, appears to have barely registered with the general public. There is probably even less awareness of the changes to the oversight of the Electoral Commission provided for in the Elections Act 2022. Yet both reshaped the UK constitution.

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The future of the electoral system

John Pullinger, chair of the Electoral Commission and a guest speaker on the Unit’s summer conference panel on Elections and Electoral Reform, sets out four key areas where electoral law is in need of reform, arguing for improved access to registration, increased transparency when it comes to political donations, stronger and simpler electoral regulation, and a modernisation of electoral law.

Elections are at the heart of our constitution, giving people a voice when choices are made about how we are to be governed. They are a mechanism for the people to hold their governments accountable. A key test for a healthy democracy is whether people trust, value, and participate in elections. So how can we ensure that our electoral system remains effective?

An effective electoral system

An effective electoral system starts by putting the voter first. This means ensuring that as many eligible voters as possible are correctly registered, and that the process of voting is both secure and accessible to all.

The electoral system should support candidates, campaigners, and parties to get their message across, free from abuse, intimidation, and threats. It should provide transparency about campaigning activities, so we all know where campaigners’ money comes from and how it is spent.

It also needs to work for electoral administrators, supporting them to run elections effectively and efficiently, so that voters across the country receive the same high standard of service. There must be resilience in the system, so administrators can cope in the face of unexpected pressures.

At its core, it requires a simple and comprehensible canon of law so that everyone understands and can follow the rules without risk of being inadvertently caught out. The law also needs to work effectively in the context of the differences in approach to elections policy between the UK’s governments.

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