Is there time for another referendum before the new Brexit deadline?

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The last few weeks have been a whirlwind of Brexit news. Campaigners for a no-deal outcome have made themselves heard—as have campaigners for a second vote. But the new Halloween Brexit deadline is just over six months away. This raises the question: is there time to hold another referendum before we leave? And would it be possible to conduct such a vote in a proper manner? Alan Renwick addresses the key questions and concludes that a properly conducted referendum is preferable to a speedy one.

In a report published last autumn, my colleagues and I at the Unit calculated that it takes at least 22 weeks—roughly five months—to hold a referendum in the UK. That allows 11 weeks for the necessary legislation to go through parliament and the Electoral Commission to assess the proposed question, one week to get ready, and ten weeks for the campaign. If parliament started this process today, a vote could be held on 26th September. So long as the wheels were set in motion by the European Parliament elections on 23rd May, a referendum could go ahead on 24th October; the last Thursday that gives time for the result to be declared before the deadline.

So the simple answer to the question posed above is, yes, there is time for a referendum by October.

But does pushing for a referendum at breakneck speed still make sense? Back when we were writing our report, the first question everyone asked was whether a vote could be held before Brexit day on 29th March. Once that timetable had become untenable, the question was whether the ballot could be organised by 23rd May or 30th June, so that the UK would not have to participate in the European Parliament elections. If a vote is being contemplated for September or October, that Rubicon will long have been crossed.

Crucially, EU leaders have signalled that the Halloween deadline will not be final if a decision-making process is ongoing by then. In other words, starting the referendum process could itself provide Britain with more time to deliberate. Businesses are desperate for some kind of resolution. But a well-run referendum would produce a more robust outcome. Taking a little extra time to ensure that would be worthwhile.

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We must be realistic about what independent regulation of referendum campaigns might be able to achieve

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In the aftermath of the EU referendum much has been written about the conduct of referendums in the UK, and whether changes to the way referendum campaigns are regulated should be made in future. The latest contribution is a report by the Electoral Reform Society, in which a number of recommendations are made. In this post Alistair Clark writes that we must be realistic about how much independent regulation might be able to achieve. During the EU referendum independent authorities did speak out against Vote Leave’s £350 million claim, but with no noticeable effect on the campaign, whilst existing experience with regulatory bodies in the UK suggests that political parties push back against regulation and exploit loopholes.

With sincere apologies to Edwin Starr, referendums, what are they good for? If you believe much that has been written since the fateful decision on June 23, not much. Except of course for those writing reports and comment about how they have been conducted, the present author of this blog included. The latest in a long and continuing series of commentary is the Electoral Reform Society’s It’s Good To Talk: Doing Referendums Differently After the EU Vote, published on 1 September.

This is a typically thoughtful and provocative report from ERS. It essentially highlights the egregious quality of debate in the EU referendum, with lies, half-truths and obfuscation at a level rarely seen in British politics. That this was possible was because of the generally ill-informed nature of political debate and the lack of reliable political information. Many PSA members, this author included, signed an open letter orchestrated by the Constitution Unit and published in the Daily Telegraph during the referendum campaign, highlighting the level of misinformation and its likely impact on the democratic legitimacy of the result.

The consequences of this misinformation are becoming clearer by the day, and the warnings of the much derided ‘experts’ about the difficulties involved with Brexit are also being underlined by events. The actual date of triggering Article 50, never mind Brexit itself, recedes ever further into the distance. No-one is any clearer about what a post-Brexit UK might look like, despite some of the more outrageous claims during the campaign and recent statements by the Prime Minister and her cabinet.

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Fact-checking and the EU referendum

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The EU referendum was the most fact-checked referendum of all time, yet voters were badly misinformed on key issues. In this post Zander Goss and Alan Renwick consider the effectiveness of fact-checking during the referendum. They conclude that, although fact-checkers were unable to overcome rampant misinformation, fact-checking must be embraced. Some suggestions are offered for how fact-checkers might better cut through to voters in future.

The claim: Despite the referendum on EU membership being the most fact-checked referendum of all time, many voters were badly misinformed.

The verdict: TRUE. It is extremely unlikely any other referendum has ever been as extensively fact-checked as this one. Sadly, misinformation was rampant even as voters went to the polls. No one is certain how to make fact-checking more effective, but there are many ideas which merit further research.

 

Fact-checking was a prominent feature of the EU referendum. Indeed, this was likely the most fact-checked referendum to date not only in the UK but anywhere in the world. Nevertheless, polling evidence suggests that widespread misperception of the EU and related issues such as immigration and so-called ‘benefit tourism’ remained – a Financial Times commenter even suggested after the vote that the UK had become a ‘post-factual democracy’. This post looks at the extent and nature of fact-checking in the UK and asks whether anything could be done to increase its impact. We are not yet ready to provide answers, but we seek to identify issues that deserve further discussion.

What is fact-checking and who are the fact-checkers?

Fact-checking is a form of journalism often credited as arising from ‘ad watches’ in the early 1990s, which assessed claims in American political advertising. Fact-check teams exercise editorial judgement to select verifiable assertions made by politicians and thoroughly analyse them, thereby informing voters and helping them to hold politicians accountable. The practice has grown dramatically since the founding of pioneers such as FactCheck.org in 2004 and PolitiFact.com in 2007. Duke University Reporters’ Lab’s 2016 fact-checking census found a 50 per cent increase in fact-checking sites worldwide in the year to 15 February 2016, listing 96 active projects in 37 countries.

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