Today, the Unit published Monitor 85, providing analysis of constitutional events over the last four months. It covers a continuing crisis of parliamentary scrutiny and political standards, a string of avoidable by-elections, the continuing stalemate in Northern Ireland, SNP travails in Scotland, electoral reform in Wales, and a failed referendum campaign in Australia. This post, which also serves as this issue’s lead article, outlines how the government and its opponents are starting to draw the battle lines for the next general election against a background of constitutional change and challenges throughout the United Kingdom.

Rishi Sunak marked his first anniversary as Prime Minister on 25 October. The legacy of his predecessors continued to dog him over the summer. Boris Johnson’s resignation from parliament in June – covered in the last issue of Monitor – triggered a by-election in his constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The Conservative Party hung on there, but lost four other by-elections in safe seats, three of which were called due to reasons related to Johnson’s departure. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 inquiry revealed what many saw as chaos at the heart of government.

Sunak sought to reset his image in September, as a Prime Minister focused on making the right long-term decisions. He acknowledged that ‘people in our country are frustrated with our politics’, saying, ‘I know that they dislike Westminster game playing, the short termism, and the lack of accountability.’ He pledged ‘a wholly new kind of politics’ with ‘space for a better, more honest debate about how we secure the country’s long-term interest.’ Announcing a shift in net zero policy, he added, ‘in a democracy, we must also be able to scrutinise and debate those changes’.

These were virtuous sentiments, chiming strongly with much of what defenders of core democratic and constitutional principles have been pressing for in recent years. But aspects of the speech appeared to undermine them. Some dropped policies had never actually existed. Sunak’s call for accountability and scrutiny was delivered on the first day of a parliamentary recess, leaving MPs unable to question him on his plans for almost a month. The Commons Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, responded with a sharply worded rebuke.

This was not the government’s only recent indication of unwillingness to accept scrutiny. Ministers responded in July – on the day the Commons rose for its summer break – to three reports on strengthening the system for upholding standards in public office, rejecting many of their recommendations. These included a key proposal from the Committee on Standards in Public Life and the House of Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee to place three ethical watchdogs on a statutory footing.

Meanwhile, some ministers chafed against the constraints of international law. Home Secretary Suella Braverman restated her personal view that the UK should leave the European Convention on Human Rights. In her speech to the Conservative Party conference in October, amidst a tirade against the ‘privileged woke minority’ that left many moderate Conservatives alarmed, she labelled the Human Rights Act ‘the Criminal Rights Act’. Sunak’s call for reasoned policy debate was further challenged when Transport Secretary Mark Harper advanced debunked conspiracy theories.

The King’s Speech on 7 November – the first for both the King and his Prime Minister – was a further opportunity for Sunak to set out his stall to voters. There was a heavy focus on criminal justice, including a planned Investigatory Powers (Amendment) Bill that will have implications for privacy rights and the judicial oversight of intelligence agencies. Other proposals with potential constitutional implications included changes to data protection rules and a Media Bill that would revise rules on public service broadcasting and remove press regulation provisions that were enacted after the 2012 Leveson Report, but never implemented.

With opinion polls leading most Westminster observers to expect a change of government following the next general election, attention has increasingly turned to the Labour Party. Keir Starmer reshuffled his frontbench team in September, with the constitutional briefs subject to significant change. Angela Rayner will now spearhead Labour’s plans for devolution within England, while Nick Thomas-Symonds will coordinate constitutional policy, and Florence Eshalomi will focus on democracy.

At Labour’s conference in October, Starmer echoed Sunak in calling for ‘an entirely new approach to politics’ focused on long-term policymaking. He emphasised a need for respect and service in politics. Besides a brief pledge to fight for the rule of law, however, he did not indicate whether that would involve changing political processes as well as policies. The conference was overshadowed by the Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel on 7 October. Tense debates subsequently emerged within the party over the Israeli government’s response.

Back at Westminster, there are growing calls for action on Lord appointments – and the likely new chair of the House of Lords Appointments Commission, Baroness (Ruth) Deech, indicated support for expanding the commission’s remit if ministers allowed. A Speaker’s Conference published proposals for limited reform of the employment conditions of MPs’ staff – a group that has been subject to only very limited previous study, but is the focus of the Unit’s latest report, published in October. The government announced plans to raise spending limits during election campaigns. And proposals were made for civil service reform.

Outside London, the SNP’s woes continue. The party lost the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in early October. Two of its senior elected representatives then defected over the following weeks: Lisa Cameron MP to the Conservatives, and Ash Regan MSP to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party. The SNP’s annual conference agreed a revised path towards seeking Scottish independence. Meanwhile, the Welsh government published a bill setting out its plans to expand the Senedd and reform its voting system. Further legislation, on gender quotas, is expected soon.

In Northern Ireland, ongoing talks between UK ministers and the leaders of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have so far failed to break the deadlock over restoring the Assembly and Executive. DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson praised devolved government at his party’s conference and hinted at a desire to find a way forward. But expectations of change in the short term are low. A report from the Unit’s Alan Renwick and Conor Kelly in July explored perspectives on the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.

The coming weeks will see publication of the final report of our three-year research project examining the state of public attitudes to democracy in the UK, Democracy in the UK after Brexit. This will draw the project’s various strands together and tease out key lessons for policymakers. Booking is open for a launch event on 27 November, featuring leading speakers from Westminster and academia.

The latest edition of Monitor is available in both HTML and PDF formats via our website. If you are interested in the subjects discussed in this post, then we recommend that you read our latest reports, on the work of MP’s staff and perspectives on the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, or watch/listen to the panels from our summer conference, entitled The Future of the Constitution.

About the authors

Meg Russell FBA is Professor of British and Comparative Politics at UCL and Director of the Constitution Unit.

Alan Renwick is Professor of Democratic Politics at UCL and Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit.

Featured image credit: Keir Starmer presents new MPs to Labour Party colleagues (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by keir.starmer.mp.