Elections for the Welsh Senedd take place on 7 May, using an altered voting system and leading to an expanded membership. The major parties contesting the election have all published manifestos setting out their policies: as in Scotland, there are numerous proposals to alter the devolution settlement, change how the devolved institutions operate and reform standards and operations at the centre of government. Dave Busfield-Birch describes what changes have been proposed.

With the elections on 7 May imminent, we now know what each of the parties seeking to win over Welsh voters have promised in terms of constitutional reform. The proposals are many, and it is not possible here to highlight every policy commitment that may have constitutional implications. This post, therefore, will limit itself to several key areas of constitutional interest, highlighting points of agreement (and disagreement) that may affect negotiations on government formation after the election is over. It also restricts its analysis to the manifestos of the following parties: the Green Party, Heritage Party, Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Labour and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. The parties chosen are either standing at least one candidate in each of the 16 constituencies or standing at least 32 candidates across a minimum of four constituencies.

Independence, further devolution and relations with Westminster

Most attention focuses on the structure of the Union and extent of devolution.

The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, which contested the most recent Senedd and general elections in 2021 and 2024 respectively has confirmed that it will not field candidates this time, which means that the Heritage Party – a small outfit located to the right of Reform – is the only party which has made a manifesto commitment to abolish the Senedd. Reform does not mention the question of independence at all, and does not promise to abolish or enhance the Senedd.

Plaid is the only party openly in favour of Welsh independence, but is not proposing that this should happen before the 2031 election. Instead, its manifesto calls for the power to decide on ‘the timeline, question and process for an independence referendum’ to be devolved to Cardiff. It also intends to establisha National Commission for Wales, which would conduct a ‘national conversation’, research key political and economic questions relevant to Wales’s constitutional future, and lay the foundations for a future white paper on independence.

The Conservatives rule out both independence and additional powers for the Senedd. The Liberal Democrats propose creating ‘a federal UK’, which would include abolishing the power of the UK government to unilaterally change the powers of the devolved parliaments or pass laws in their areas of responsibility, and the creation of a Council of Ministers to bring together the governments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland with regional leaders across England. Labour is proposing a Constitutional Reform Act to ‘protect devolution and strengthen Wales’ status in the UK’. The Greens want Wales to have the same devolved powers as Scotland.

Most parties call for more devolution in specific policy areas. Plaid and the Lib Dems both want the Welsh government to have the power to set income tax rates, as is the case in Scotland, and the Lib Dems want the power to set Air Passenger Duty as well.

Devolution of justice policy and the police is a widespread demand. The Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid are all in favour, with the latter labelling it an ‘immediate priority’ and the former explicitly committing to something wider: ‘a distinct legal jurisdiction for Wales’. Labour’s position is slightly different: it wants to create a Minister for Justice and seek control of youth justice and probation. Labour and Plaid also intend to introduce Welsh Tribunals Bill, but there is little to no detail from either on what it would contain. The Conservatives explicitly reject devolution in this area.

Other proposals include devolution of the Crown Estate in Wales, as is the case in Scotland (Liberal Democrats, Labour and Plaid), railways (Greens, Liberal Democrats and Plaid), water policy (Greens) and broadcasting and media powers (Greens and Liberal Democrats).

As for funding from Westminster, the Greens, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid all want to replace or revise what Plaid calls the ‘outdated and unfair’ Barnett formula, the mechanism used to calculate annual block grants from Westminster to the devolved governments. Labour wants to make the case for a new ‘fair share formula’ to make determination of the block grant based on need, and will advocate for a new independent adjudicator to oversee it.

The Senedd

The Senedd is about to undergo significant change regardless of how the public votes, as there is a new electoral system in place for this election, and the membership will expand from 60 to 96 members. These changes are discussed in detail in a post published on 1 May. The Conservatives are committed to reversing the increased size of the Senedd and reducing the membership back down to 60.

On diversity within the Senedd, Plaid intends to ‘examine options’ for innovations such as job-sharing for MSs, and the Greens want to introduce measures to support candidates with caring responsibilities, including financial assistance and childcare support. Detailed proposals on the operation of the Senedd are largely absent, especially when compared to some of the parties’ Scottish counterparts. For example, several parties in Scotland are proposing that MSPs should be subject to a recall mechanism, but Labour is alone in proposing that this should be introduced in Wales.

Elections

The new Senedd voting system is a fully closed-list one, in which voters can select only a party, not a candidate. The Greens want to review this system. Plaid goes further, promising to conduct a ‘full review’ of Senedd electoral arrangements, and work for a cross-party consensus for the use of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system in Senedd elections. It also proposes using STV for local elections.

As for who can vote, the Greens want to create a system of automatic voter registration, Heritage wants to raise the voting age from 16 to 18, and Reform wants to ‘restore election integrity’ by removing the right of qualifying citizens of other countries to vote in Senedd elections. Reform also wants to restrict government-funded election communications to using English and Welsh.

Democratic Engagement

The use of citizens’ assemblies and participatory budgeting remains popular, with the Greens offering to increase the use of both, and Labour proposing assemblies on the funding of social care and how to create cohesive communities. Plaid’s National Commission for Wales would seek to engage people in ‘an ongoing conversation about the options for Wales’s constitutional future’. Only one manifesto proposes the use of referendums: Reform is proposing that all council tax increases of 5% or more should be approved by a local vote.

Government

Reform has a raft of proposals on government reform, including reducing the size of the civil service estate and workforce, and a review of quangos, ‘merging or abolishing those with duplicate or unnecessary functions’ and limiting tenure on them via term limits and a ban on ‘serial appointments’. Other public bodies would have automatic expiry dates for public bodies, requiring government action for them to continue. The Conservatives also want to make the civil service smaller. Additionally, the party wants to cap the number of ministers at 12 and cut ministerial pay by 10%.

Human Rights

The Conservatives, Greens, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Plaid are all in favour of incorporating one or more international human rights treaties into Welsh law, including the UNCRDP, CEDAW, ICECSR, CERD, and UNCRC. The Plaid mechanism for accomplishing this would be the creation of a Human Rights Act to fully incorporate key international treaties into Welsh law.

Conclusion 

The parties discussed in this post have taken a wide range of positions. This is best exemplified by perhaps the most fundamental issue: how far should devolution go? One party is openly seeking a route to independence, while another wants to reverse devolution entirely, abolishing the institutions and returning devolved powers to Westminster. Most parties have positions somewhere in between, giving voters a broad choice.

Of course, whether a party can seek to implement any of its proposals will depend on how they fare in this week’s election, but other factors will also be at play over the following five-year Senedd term. Should the election result in a minority government, it will obviously have to win over other parties on any measure it wants to pass through the Senedd, and negotiations that lead to a coalition government could well lead to manifesto commitments being put aside to secure agreement. Additionally, other changes – such as to the voting system – require a two-thirds majority in the Senedd, which is no easy feat.

Finally, as is the case in Scotland, real progress on some of the policies discussed above will require active support from the UK government in Westminster. This seems close to impossible in some cases – especially independence – and highly unlikely in others. The likely course of constitutional change in Wales may be set at this election, but electoral success alone will not ensure that any party can secure its manifesto objectives.  

This is the first in a two-part series of posts offering analysis of the parties’ manifestos in Wales and Scotland. For a broader discussion of the current arrangements for electing the Senedd, in place for the first time at this election, a post on this subject was published on Friday 1 May. Sign up via the box in the left-hand sidebar to receive email notifications when the second post in this series goes live.

About the author

Dave Busfield-Birch is the editor of the Constitution Unit Blog.