Today, the Unit published Monitor 86, providing analysis of constitutional events over the last four months. This post by Meg Russell and Alan Renwick also serves as the issue’s lead article. It outlines how the government and its opponents are increasingly acting with the general election in mind, and the impact that is having on the UK constitution. It covers a wide range of topics, including the defeat of the government’s Rwanda policy in the Supreme Court, the ensuing legislative battle to overturn that judgment, a furore involving the Speaker, changes to the electoral system ahead of the next general election, the health of the monarchy, a return to power-sharing in Northern Ireland, and challenges to the rule of law in Poland and Israel.
Constitutional politics – just like politics more broadly – is increasingly framed by the UK’s looming general election. That must take place within the next 10 months, but could be called within weeks. Each party is preparing its pitch to voters, and preparatory changes – some of them controversial – have been made to electoral law.
A Conservative priority is to ‘stop the boats’ that carry asylum seekers across the English Channel. The Supreme Court ruled in November that one of the policies through which ministers hope to advance that aim – sending some asylum seekers to Rwanda – was illegal, as asylum seekers there could be returned to home countries where they are in danger. The government responded to this judgment by upgrading its previous memorandum of understanding with the Rwandan government to a treaty and by introducing legislation that, if passed, will declare Rwanda to be a safe country, prevent courts from deciding to the contrary, and empower ministers to ignore injunctions granted by the European Court of Human Rights.
These moves seem motivated by a belief among ministers that seeing flights take off for Rwanda is essential for their party’s prospects at the ballot box. But, in attempting this, they risk placing electoral expediency ahead of the rule of law. The Rwanda bill is criticised for breaching the UK’s obligations under international law and for undermining the separation of powers between parliament and the judiciary. Both of these points are central to the British constitutional tradition.
Labour, meanwhile, is keen to show voters that it shares their distaste for how politics has been conducted in recent years. It wishes to establish an ‘Integrity and Ethics Commission’ charged with upholding standards in government, the detail of which remains unspecified. And Keir Starmer has insisted that he would sack any minister found to have seriously broken the Ministerial Code. A sympathetic biography of Starmer published in late February said the party was carefully examining recent proposals for reform from a commission led by former Conservative Attorney General Dominic Grieve. The same book also highlighted potential interest at the highest levels of Labour in using citizens’ assemblies to aid effective policy-making.
The proximity of the election seems also to have contributed to an increasingly vexatious tone in political debate In November, the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, sacked his Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, for comments about the police that were widely viewed as inflammatory. In February, the Conservative whip was withdrawn from Lee Anderson after he made Islamophobic remarks. Labour faced similar woes, having to disown its candidate in a by-election in Rochdale for having propagated conspiracy theories about Israel. That by-election was subsequently won by controversial former MP George Galloway.
In February, the House of Commons descended briefly into chaos during a debate on the conflict in Israel and Gaza. The Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, had side-stepped convention to allow voting on a range of options, in order, he said, to diffuse tensions. But that failed, generating fury, particularly from SNP MPs, whose attempt to expose Labour splits was consequently lost. Hoyle’s position remains precarious. But a deeper concern is that an opportunity for serious debate of a supremely sensitive issue was instead weaponised by all sides as a forum for partisan game-playing. The arguments were partly fuelled by fears about threats against MPs, only weeks after the Jo Cox Civility Commission published proposals for how to tackle abuse and intimidation in politics. Labour MP Stella Creasy is among those recently raising concerns about the way in which the personal targeting of MPs risks driving out reasoned debate.
Meanwhile, certain rules for the forthcoming election itself have been altered. Some of these changes are positive. Notably, new constituency boundaries came into force in November – the first to be implemented without the possibility of political interference. But other changes are more controversial. A ‘strategy and policy statement’ now ‘guides’ the Electoral Commission – a move that many see as violating the Commission’s vital independence. Campaign spending limits were suddenly increased. Legislation now before parliament would allow constraints on direct marketing by candidates to be lifted. But calls for other changes – made by the Electoral Commission, the Lords Constitution Committee, and others – have not been heeded.
For many people, the sense of constitutional gloom was heightened by worries over the health of the monarchy. The King was diagnosed with cancer and withdrew from public engagements. The Princess of Wales had major surgery and ceased all her duties. While the King was known to have wanted the royal family to ‘slim down’, these sudden unexpected changes perhaps expose some of the risks of going too far.
Away from Westminster, there was good news in Northern Ireland, where devolved government resumed in early February after a two-year hiatus. Northern Ireland has its first nationalist First Minister, in Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill. Early indications were that she was working effectively with the new deputy First Minister, Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP. The new Executive’s in-tray is formidable, however, and questions about how the power-sharing institutions can be put on a more secure footing remain.
Wales will also shortly have a new First Minister, Mark Drakeford having announced in December his intention to step down. The outcome of the resulting leadership election – contested between ministers Vaughan Gething and Jeremy Miles – is due to be announced on 16 March. Steps towards major reform of the Welsh Senedd meanwhile continue. A bill to expand the chamber from 60 to 96 members passed its first stage of parliamentary scrutiny in January. Controversially, the bill would also replace the current mixed electoral system with a proportional system based solely on closed lists.
Wider constitutional reforms have also been considered in Wales: a commission set up to examine options, chaired by Laura McAllister and Rowan Williams, published its final report in January. Yet neither the Conservatives nor – at UK level – Labour have signalled any willingness to countenance significant change.
Finally, while political developments in the devolved nations often resonate little in London, one court judgment in Northern Ireland raised eyebrows. The High Court in Belfast ruled that large parts of the so-called ‘Legacy Act’ passed last year are incompatible not only with the European Convention on Human Rights, but also with ongoing obligations in EU law, and it disapplied them on that basis. The ruling has been appealed by the UK government. But it serves as a reminder that, even after Brexit, Westminster cannot always do what it pleases.
The latest edition of Monitor is available in both HTML and PDF formats via our website. In addition, if you are interested in parliament’s role in the use of military force, the Unit is hosting a panel discussion on this subject at 1pm. It is not too late to register to attend online.
About the authors
Meg Russell FBA is Professor of British and Comparative Politics at UCL and Director of the Constitution Unit.
Alan Renwick is Professor of Democratic Politics at UCL and Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit.
Featured image credit: The State Opening of Parliament 2023 (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) by UK Parliament.