“Thursday’s election will either reshape the UK significantly or ease the way to its breakup”

Alan Trench assesses devolution commitments in the party manifestos and argues that pro-UK and nationalist parties alike display a lack of coherence and consistency. The SNP and Plaid Cymru seem to have conflicting demands, while the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems fail to take an overarching view of the implications of their proposals for each part of the UK on the others. It is however clear that the outcome of Thursday’s election will have major implications for the structure of the country.

It is hard to think of a general election that has ever been so freighted with questions about the UK’s territorial constitution. It is hardly an overstatement to say that the outcome of the 2015 election, and actions of the government that takes office after it, will either reshape the UK significantly or ease the way to its breakup. This post considers what the manifestos tell us about what the various parties propose to do and how they propose to do it, when it comes to the reshaping of devolution arrangements across the UK, and then discusses some of the issues that will loom larger after 7 May.

The pro-UK parties

The 2015 manifestos contain a welter of devolution-related commitments. Those in the three pro-UK parties (Conservative, Liberal Democrats and Labour) are all strikingly similar, though not identical. For Scotland, all commit to implementing the Smith Commission’s recommendations, and to retaining the Barnett formula. (Interestingly, they do not commit to the UK Government’s white paper Scotland in the United Kingdom: An enduring settlement, raising the possibility they could scrape off some of the barnacles that paper puts on the Smith proposals). Labour want to go further in a ‘Home Rule bill’ in unspecified ways, though it appears that wider scope for the Scottish Parliament to legislate on welfare matters is key to it. These commitments rather resemble those made by the same three parties in 2010 about the implementation of the Calman Commission’s recommendations, though with Labour somewhat breaking ranks with the two governing parties.

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Plaid Cymru: a call for independence or clever tactics?

Last week Leanne Wood, leader of Plaid Cymru, spoke at the Unit about the constitutional future of Wales. Christine Stuart reports.

Many headlines this year have been devoted to Alex Salmond, the SNP, and the impending Scottish independence referendum. But Scotland is not the only part of the UK with ambitions for greater self-rule. Speaking on Wednesday at UCL as part of the Constitution Unit’s seminar series, Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood acknowledged that Wales has long been overshadowed in the debate on the constitutional future of the UK, but that the time is now ripe for the future of Wales to move into the spotlight.

Wood took the opportunity to call for the current system of Welsh devolution to give way to a system of self-government. She proposed a model where sovereignty is held by the people of Wales, calling for an arrangement in which the Welsh people themselves ‘determine what powers to share or cede with other nations and parliaments’. Making reference to the Edinburgh agreement, Wood announced that a Plaid Cymru government in 2016 would seek a similar agreement between the Welsh and UK governments, granting the people of Wales responsibility for their own constitution and the right to hold binding referendums. This would include the right to seek a referendum on independence.

In recent times Plaid Cymru have been somewhat reserved on the issue of independence, with a sense that it was a long-term goal for the distant future. This speech signals a new direction for the party, with Wood stating:

‘For too long, independence in the Welsh context has been treated as a pipe-dream as an aspiration so distant it has been seen as unrealistic and unworkable.

But this evening, I want to elevate the debate and I can reveal that Plaid Cymru will shortly be publishing plans to begin the debate on Wales’ future.’

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