Monitor 92, published today, provides an analysis of constitutional events over the last four months. In this post, which replicates the issue’s lead article, Alan Renwick and Meg Russell argue that the government continues to make small strides in areas such as constitutional standards and electoral reform, where instead bold action to renew the health of democracy is badly needed. 

Recent months have seen repeated signs of politics in flux. Features of both the domestic and the international orders that have been broadly stable since the Second World War seem to be crumbling.  

On the domestic front, February’s Gorton and Denton by-election saw the Green Party and Reform capture the top two spots – and almost 70% of the votes – while the traditional parties trailed behind. The overall pattern was similar to that seen in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election last autumn, where Plaid Cymru leapfrogged Labour to become the focal point for voters keen to defeat Reform (see Monitor 91). The Manchester contest was the first Westminster by-election to mirror an equivalent dynamic in England. The outcome reflects deep public dissatisfaction with the existing democratic order. It weakens Labour’s ability to claim that votes for other progressive parties are wasted. The local and devolved elections due in May could further solidify a profound shift in the party system.  

In the international arena, Donald Trump’s government launched military actions in Venezuela in January and (with Israel) in Iran at the end of February. Whether either intervention complied with international law was, at the least, highly questionable. Between these episodes, the US President spent several weeks ramping up rhetoric about taking control of Greenland, before being persuaded to back down. Such actions further undermined observance of the principle that power must be subject to checks and balances. The response to these developments by EU governments has been mixed. They robustly defended the principles of sovereignty and self-determination in relation to Greenland. On Iran, however, even German Chancellor Friedrich Merz – the leader of a country that for decades has seen the rule of law as paramount – initially seemed willing to tolerate the sidelining of international rules. 

Meanwhile, revelations emerging from the release in both the UK and United States of files relating to the convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein shed new light on international networks of power and influence, deepening the disgrace of former Labour strategy guru Peter Mandelson and former prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.  

The UK government’s response to these many challenges has received mixed reviews. On the international front, Keir Starmer has sought to chart a middle way, refusing to endorse Trump’s wars and other adventures while keeping overt public criticisms muted. While some right-wing outlets – and former Prime Minister Tony Blair – have criticised Starmer for failing to follow in lockstep behind the United States, and some have urged a less ambiguous strategy of differentiation, most seasoned observers have seen the cautious path as the only one Starmer could credibly take. 

In the domestic arena, the government’s biggest new constitutional initiative has been the publication of the Representation of the People Bill. Core measures have been widely welcomed, including lowering the voting age to 16, easing participation in elections, hindering harassment of candidates, campaigners, and election staff, and clamping down on foreign interference. But they are generally seen as insufficient to tackle the scale of the threats that democracy faces. MPs speaking during the bill’s Commons second reading debate in early March variously described democracy in the UK as ‘fragile’ and ‘acutely vulnerable’. They proposed strengthening the bill, for example through additional provisions on campaign finance, new interventions to tackle disinformation, and – most radically – the replacement of First Past the Post in Westminster elections. One welcome development was an announcement from Secretary of State Steve Reed that the Electoral Commission ‘strategy and policy statement’ introduced under the previous government would be abolished. 

Multiple other initiatives have struggled. Reforms to the composition of the House of Lords have made some progress, but very slowly, and the chamber’s membership has soared to a new post-1999 high after a raft of fresh appointments. Planning for local elections in May descended into chaos, as ministers first postponed and then un-postponed elections in many areas that are expected to undergo local government reorganisation in the next few years. Pilots for ‘flexible voting’ arrangements at the May elections were announced, but appear less ambitious than ministers had initially intended. The so-called ‘Hillsborough law’, which seeks to create a duty of candour for public officials, appears stalled amid disagreements over how its provisions would apply to the security services. Reforms of the criminal justice system have been set out, but provisions on further restricting the right to trial by jury face considerable opposition; and it is far from clear that they would do much to alleviate the shocking delays that those involved in court cases currently endure. Ministers have said they will strip Mandelson – and perhaps Mountbatten-Windsor – of their titles; but the form and timing of the necessary legislation remains unclear; and questions have been renewed about the meaningfulness of the government’s commitment to raising ethical standards. 

But in the final weeks before Monitor went to press, a string of announcements suggested a possible shift within government towards greater acknowledgement of the importance of constraints on central executive power. The restoration of full Electoral Commission independence, previously resisted, was one example. Ministers also launched several reviews designed to strengthen the standards system, while Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones announced the first national citizens’ assembly to be sponsored by the UK government, on the subject of digital ID. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said the BBC would be given a permanent charter, making it harder for any future government to shut down or decimate the national broadcaster. And Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves proposed the devolution of some tax revenues to English regions.  

Whether these developments mark a real shift in strategy – precipitated perhaps by changes in Number 10 personnel in February – remains to be seen. 

Parliamentary reforms have been proposed in reports from the Commons Procedure Committee and Modernisation Committee, Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, and Backbench Business Committee. These have largely been modest, while the government’s response to the Backbench Business Committee’s more ambitious proposals was unsympathetic. The ‘Restoration and Renewal’ programme of proposed repairs to the Palace of Westminster has also accrued yet another report, but still no decisions have been made – which some fear is symbolic of action to revive democracy as a whole.  

In Scotland and Wales, meanwhile, all eyes have turned to the parliamentary elections due in May. Labour’s woes in Westminster appear set to assist the SNP in retaining power in Scotland for a fifth consecutive term. As discussed at a Unit seminar in March, the polls in Wales predict a collapse in support for Labour; and constitution watchers will be keen also to see the effects of reforms that will expand the Senedd and change the voting system. Assembly elections are not due in Northern Ireland till 2027; but policy-making is already increasingly gridlocked, amid frosty relations between the main unionist and nationalist parties.

With a faltering economy and a wildly volatile incumbent in the White House, government faces immense challenges. Many of Keir Starmer’s own MPs and ministers appear to have concluded that he is too flat-footed to meet these problems. Whether he can survive the electoral defeats expected in May remains to be seen. In the meantime, bold action to renew the health of democracy remains badly needed. 

Monitor 92 is available on our website and in PDF format. All previous issues of Monitor are also available to download. You can sign up to receive each edition of Monitor in your inbox through our mailing list.

About the authors

Professor Alan Renwick is Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit.

Professor Meg Russell FBA is Director of the Constitution Unit.

Featured image: Keir Starmer (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) by UK Prime Minister.