Monitor 68: A constitution in flux

The latest issue of Monitor, the Constitution Unit’s regular newsletter, was published today. The issue covers all of the major UK constitutional developments over the past four months, a period that has seen the EU (Withdrawal) Bill pass from the Commons to the Lords; the failure of talks in Northern Ireland; and a significant government reshuffle. Abroad, Ireland is considering a permanent constitutional change and Japan has seen a constitutional first as its current emperor confirmed he is to abdicate. This post is the opening article from Monitor 68. The full edition can be found on our website. 

The UK is experiencing a period of deep constitutional uncertainty. In at least four key areas, structures of power and governance are in flux. Screenshot_20180308.210141 (1)

The first of these, of course, is the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the European Union, to which the Brexit negotiations will shortly turn. The degree to which the UK continues to pool its sovereignty with other European countries depends on the form of that relationship: how far, and on what issues, the UK continues to adhere to EU rules, align closely with them, or follow its own separate path. Theresa May set out her most detailed proposals yet in a speech at Mansion House on 2 March, advocating close alignment outside the structures of the EU Single Market and Customs Union. On 7 March, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, published draft guidelines for the EU’s position. As before, this emphasises ‘that the four freedoms of the Single Market are indivisible and that there can be no “cherry picking.”’ What deal will emerge from the negotiations is entirely unclear.

The government’s preferred path will face stiff resistance in parliament too. In late February Jeremy Corbyn signalled that Labour wants a UK–EU customs union (an issue also central to the conclusions reached by the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit). Consequently the government now risks defeat on an amendment to the Trade Bill pursuing the same objective, tabled by Conservative backbencher Anna Soubry. Beyond that, an amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill passed in the House of Commons in December guarantees that the deal between the UK and the EU agreed through the Brexit negotiations will need to be endorsed by an Act of Parliament in the UK. Brexit’s opponents are increasingly vocal and organised, and occupy a strong position in Westminster. The odds remain that Brexit will happen, but that isn’t guaranteed. Continue reading

Report of the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit: the public reject ‘no deal’

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit has just published its first report. Building on findings previously reported on this blog, it sets out how the Citizens’ Assembly operated and what conclusions it reached. Alan Renwick offers a summary and gives a foretaste of the work that is still to come in ensuring that policy-makers can hear what the members of the Assembly have to say.

The public would prefer the UK to stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union than do no deal on future relations with the EU. Some politicians might be talking tough, but that is not what their voters actually want.

This is the core message that comes through the summary report of the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit, which was published yesterday. Recent weeks have seen increasing talk among some politicians and commentators about the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. But when voters in the Citizens’ Assembly heard the arguments and facts on all sides, they viewed remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union as preferable to simply walking away without a deal.

What is the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit?

As explained in detail in the report, the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit was held over two weekends in September 2017. It brought together 50 randomly selected citizens who reflected the diversity of the UK electorate, including a majority who supported the Leave option in the referendum last year. The project is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through its UK in a Changing Europe programme. It aims to provide much needed, robust public input into the Brexit process and to show the value of informed and in-depth public engagement on controversial areas of public policy.

The Assembly addressed the question of what form its members would like Brexit to take. We did not attempt to reopen the issue of whether Brexit should happen. Rather, we sought to learn about informed public preferences for the Brexit negotiations that are currently taking place.

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